ARMY AL&T


A GAMBLER’S APPROACH


We should take a cue from successful gamblers, who make decisions with a clear understanding of the risks involved, rather than attempting to avoid risk entirely. (Image by Getty Images/ Simon Webb and Duncan Nicholls)


resources are committed. Tough used for decades by some to very successfully understand complex military systems, widespread use of design of experiments and statistical analysis across the DOD in all phases of research, development and fielding would provide substantial benefits. Methods and software tools are available that allow us to collect data and perform analysis to answer questions about even our most complex military systems.


CONCLUSION Taking risks that ultimately impact the effectiveness and safety of our Soldiers is inherent in the acquisition process. By using design of experiments to plan tests and statistical methods to analyze the resulting data, we can most efficiently utilize resources to provide decision makers with a true understanding of risk. Te costs of continuing to fund an effort (e.g. a specific research effort, system upgrade or program) can be substantial in terms of time and taxpayer dollars; ending an effort can result in missed opportunities to


make Soldiers safer or more effective. To successfully make such high-stakes deci- sions, decision-makers must insist that information provided to them is based on appropriate data and that the information quantifies risk. Only by doing so can they make risk-aware decisions in the best inter- est of our Soldiers.


For more information on applying design of experiments and statistical analysis to mili- tary systems, go to https://testscience.org/ design-of-experiments.


JASON MARTIN has been the test design and analysis lead for nine years at the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Aviation & Missile Center, Test and Evaluation Division. He has an M.S. in statistics from Texas A&M University and an MBA and a B.S. in mechanical engineering, both from Auburn University. He is Level III certified in test and evaluation and in engineering.


While truly understanding risk can make a decision more difficult, even gut- wrenching, we owe it to our Soldiers to understand the risks involved when making decisions that affect them.


https://asc.ar my.mil 97


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