FIGURE 2
PREDICTION PROFILER
Don’t use statistical software as
a
“black box.” Te most comprehensive, accurate, and useful information is obtained from data when the analyst or practitioner understands the under- lying mathematics and assumptions and how to interpret the diagnostic tests, and does not rely on the software alone. One of the most powerful tools in statistics is the eye. Just viewing the data in several ways often is enough to give initial insight into the behavior of the system being tested. For example, were there any time-dependent pat- terns in the data?
The experiment designed by the ARDEC SM&A Group statisticians, while requiring only 21 test units versus the contractor proposal to build and test nearly 870 units, also yielded much better predictions. (SOURCE: ARDEC SM&A Group)
Understand and report all assump- tions, how they affect the results, and how to safeguard them in the inter- est of transparency as well as robust test design. Tis is key—statistics as a decision-making tool is concerned with truth. Also, sign your work; accountability is important. If you did the analysis, stand by it and be will- ing to defend your results. In addition, if your analysis uses work completed previously
by others, credit the author.
most desirable conclusion, versus the most correct one.
As citizens and consumers, we observe this on a daily basis: Politicians,
the
media, and corporate sales and market- ing groups often cite statistical figures in making claims about
their prod-
ucts, opinions, or political positions to influence public decision and opinion— where you shop, what you buy, who you vote for, etc.
Mark Twain’s adage about statistics comes to mind: “Tere are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Statistics as a disciplined decision-making tool
should be leveraged to illuminate a topic, and it is the ethical responsibility of the professional statistician to do so. When this responsibility is abused, it reflects poorly on the credibility of the discipline.
ETHICAL GUIDELINES We can avoid the misuse of this science by following some general guidelines for statistics, adapted to armaments engineering and other defense applications:
Never choose statistical methods, or tailor your analysis, to give stakehold- ers the results that they want.
Support your organization’s in-house statistical specialists and reliability analysts by taking advantage of their expertise. Involve them early in test planning; doing so often reduces test costs and schedule, and ensures valid test results.
Te statistician’s role on the IPT is to work with the team members and subject-matter experts to tailor any test design to meet objectives by getting the most
amount of data necessary. But
information from the least it
is
also the statistician’s responsibility to educate and enlighten other team members on the data analysis methods, assumptions, and interpretation of results, and to communicate these to stakeholders in a way that is understandable to nontechnical as well
ASC.ARMY.MIL 115 you should
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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