PREDICTING THE ‘WHETHER’ FIGURE 1 TRACKING TRENDS TRENDS


Historical Context Studies War Games Brainstorming Alternate Futures Lessons Learned


THE ‘WHETHER’ MODEL OE Context for Products DRIVERS Resources


Technology Demographics Climate WMD


Governance Economics


2015 Contemporary


Current operations. Individual and collective training.


Agile fielding. 2025 Mid Future Experimentation.


Capabilities development. Doctrine development.


Just as weather forecasters track trends in wind, temperature, precipitation and other factors for their near- and longer-term forecasts, so must Army and other military planners track and map trends they see and foresee in order to anticipate the operational environment (OE) of the future. Their models may include war-gaming, historical trends and contexts, demographic trends and even the weather. (SOURCE: ARCIC)


OE – OPFOR Handbooks. Common framework of scenarios.


In talking with Hix, Felix and Cross, Army AL&T learned more than we expected.


Test plans. Data repository.


The Army’s OE for: Concept and Capability Development; 21st Century Training; Learning Model; Leader Development and the Army of 2025.


Army AL&T: How does ARCIC envision the future and then hand that off to the acquisition community to implement?


MG Hix: Certainly since I came into the Army, this is the third major period of change that has been undertaken in a period of declining resources. I became a member of the Army in the late ’70s, when we were coming out of Vietnam and there was a significant manpower reduction and


140 Army AL&T Magazine April–June 2014


budget cuts. And yet at that time, we laid the groundwork for the defense buildup that was undertaken in the 1980s and resulted in what we call Division 86 or the AirLand Battle Army with the Big Five: the Abrams M1 tank, the Bradley Fight- ing Vehicle, the Black Hawk and Apache helicopters, and the Patriot missile system.


And a host of other things [happened during that time] in terms of leader devel- opment and training. We instituted the combat training centers. So it was truly a significant integration of the acronym


TRENDS


• Resource competition. • Collective intelligence and action.


• Economic rebalancing. • Human performance. • Demographics and urbanization.


• Human-computer interaction.


• Robotics. • Cyber and space. • Engineering and manufacturing.


• Complexity. • Big data. • Power generation.


OUTCOMES Possible Probable Likely Probable Possible 2035 Far Future


Concepts. S&T.


Unified Quest.


OE master plan. Tranining support packages.


DOTMLPF, what we call the imperatives that you have to keep in balance—doc- trine, organization, training, materiel, leader development, Soldiers (personnel) and then, of course, facilities. Because if you improve, say, the lethality of a combat platform, you have got to actually have a range that can handle the gun.


So you’ve got to keep all those things in balance. And that is what TRADOC does. In fact, that is why TRADOC was formed. Because coming out of Viet- nam and with the wake-up call of the


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