COMMENTARY


FIGURE 1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029


Prelimiary design review Proposal Critical design review Request for change Development program


Transition to production Production cut-in


Begins OBSOLETE BY DESIGN


Design specifications are planned to maintain the same interface from the preliminary design review for a seven-year period, until the design becomes obsolete. (Graphic by the author)


Seven years to end of life Ends


demand versus planned production in the original obsolescence plans. Tat's because a prime contractor bought enough parts for the original contracted numbers, but when the requirement increased because of factors like FMS demand, the parts ran out faster than projected. When the contractor ordered new parts to increase production, some of the parts were no longer available, driving the need for a redesign. If the contractor did not complete a redesign to account for those unavailable parts, there would be gaps in production. Surprisingly, the U.S. government still has to pay personnel- or maintenance-associated costs for production lines, even if they go cold, as part of the contracts to maintain the lines’ functionality while issues are resolved.


Commercial parts purchased for the MSE are a small portion of the overall commercial market share. Major components within these missiles actually use parts that are similar to those in cell- phones—just made with military specifications. DOD is not a major buyer of the type of commercial parts and materiel that our prime contractor uses for designs, such as processors and memory


(approximately 1 percent of commercial market share). Te U.S. and its FMS partners buy parts and materiel for hundreds of missiles annually.


In contrast, commercial companies like cellphone makers purchase parts for millions of products per year. Cellphone companies are always adapting to the desires of consumers, and consequently, larger subcomponent providers adapt and evolve for large primes because of their share of the market. As a hypo- thetical example, a subcomponent provider might stop making certain parts, like a processor used by the U.S. government in a particular missile seeker, and shift its efforts to meet other lucra- tive market demands, like a more advanced processor for my phone so I can stream videos of fainting goats.


WHY DON’T WE JUST BUY MORE PARTS? One way to mitigate this kind of situation is for the U.S. govern- ment and prime contractors to execute a lifetime buy of the discontinued part. A lifetime buy is based on an estimate of the


https://asc.ar my.mil 137


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