DECISION DOMINANCE
THE RIGHT MOVE
As the best chess players in the world look ahead at all possible scenarios to determine outcomes, future military leaders need information derived from war games and simulations to form an understanding of needed capabilities.
Te appointment of Heidi Shyu, an American engineer, to be the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering—also referred to as DOD's chief technology officer—underpins the recognition by DOD leaders that technology is critical in help- ing to inform decision-making in wartime. In 2021, Shyu stated during a Senate hearing that the United States must invest more in technologies to counter what she called "the pacing threat" from China.
"DOD should avoid replicating private-sector research and should focus its investments on the innovative technologies that DOD uniquely needs but that the commercial sector is not develop- ing on its own," she said, adding that the United States must invest more in new technologies rather than the so-called "legacy systems."
UNDERSTANDING YOUR BLIND SPOTS Psychological analysis is about understanding how our opponents think and make decisions. It's also about knowing how they eval- uate their own positions and what the best move is for them to
112 Army AL&T Magazine Spring 2022
make, based on that evaluation. Here is where the Einstellung effect comes in. Te Einstellung effect is a state of mind triggered by years of experience in chess playing and has been documented to affect all decision-making.
Einstellung is the German word for "setting" or "attitude." In psychology, it's one concept from Gestalt theory about how preconceptions often distort our thinking. When we are exposed to one stimulus and then another, we tend to respond only to the second stimulus. Tis is called "sensory adaptation." For instance, if you are looking for a green sweater in your closet but all you see are red ones, you will not find it because your brain has grown accustomed to seeing other colors rather than green. Tis also applies to decision-making in chess and in the military, as it affects how people make decisions about what is happening around them—their minds have already been made up by previ- ous thoughts, before making a move.
In other words, expertise and knowledge may lead to over- confidence in one's methods and an unwillingness to consider
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