COMMENTARY
FILLING THE BATHTUB
Despite concerns of brain drain and a dearth of mid- level experience, the Army Acquisition Workforce is not currently suf fering the predicted widespread exit of skilled workers.
by Daniel E. Stimpson, Ph.D. F
or more than two decades, many human resources experts, university professors, consultants and think tanks have issued warnings and feared the worst about the current period. Namely, what will happen when the baby boomers retire?
Te primary concern is related to the loss of the critical skills and experience required to maintain
and improve the workforce as a high volume of seasoned employees exit the federal ranks in retirement. Tis situation, also known as “retirement brain drain,” has the potential to leave organizations with a talent vacuum.
Figure 1, Page 84, shows the distribution of the civilian Army Acquisition Workforce (AAW) in 2013, where 49 percent of the workforce was either retirement eligible or within 10 years of eligibility. In 2016, the DOD Acquisition Workforce Strategic Plan put this number at 57 percent for the entire DOD acqui- sition workforce. Clearly, the situation appeared daunting.
THE BATHTUB EFFECT AND AN IMPENDING CALAMITY Te term “bathtub” is used to describe the shape of the workforce distribution that was simultaneously overrepresented with senior acquisition professionals and underrepresented by mid-level employees. Tis situation became especially concerning because of the significant threat of experience-loss coupled with a shortage of qualified mid-level leaders to succeed those retiring.
Te origin of the bathtub and the related concerns can be traced back to hiring freezes in the 1990s. In 2000, the undersecretaries of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics and for personnel and readiness said that “after 11 consecutive years of downsizing, we face serious imbalances in the skills and experience of our highly talented and specialized civilian workforce. Further, 50 percent will be eligible to retire by 2005. In some occupations, half of the current employees will be gone by 2006.”
Te Acquisition Advisory Panel reported to the U.S. Congress in 2007: “During the 1990s, the federal acquisition workforce was significantly reduced and hiring virtually ceased, creating what has been
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