FILLING THE BATHTUB


FIGURE 1


termed the ‘bathtub effect,’ a severe short- age of procurement professionals with between five and 15 years of experience. Te impact of this shortage is likely to be felt more acutely soon, as half of the current workforce is eligible to retire in the next four years.”


In fact, this situation progressed to the point that, in 2005, the Defense Acqui- sition University (DAU) reported that 76 percent of the acquisition, logistics and technology workforce were baby boom- ers or older. Even as recently as last year, researchers at the Naval Postgraduate School were still indicating that a “sharp (natural and unavoidable) shrinkage of the workforce” could be expected as senior professionals reach retirement age and “it is self-evident that such large changes in the number and composition of the work- force must be highly disruptive.”


WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED IN THE AAW? Tese forecasts motivated senior defense acquisition leaders to take action and maintain focus on filling the bathtub. Tis was accomplished by persistently fram- ing strategy and policy decisions over the course of decades. To date, these many remedies appear to have been effective in the AAW, as nothing that can be charac- terized as “sharp” has occurred. Rather, as Figure 2, right, shows, the distribu- tion of civilian AAW employees has been smoothly transitioning over the last nine years, the period for which high resolution data are available.


Figure 2 has several features worth


noting from a human-resources perspec- tive. First, the prominent leading peak of the distribution (i.e., those approaching retirement eligibility), has decreased, dissi- pating much of the impending retirement wave—but the trailing peak and bathtub bottom have increased. Tus, the early


84 Army AL&T Magazine Spring 2022


ALMOST THERE


This graphic illustrates the AAW 2013 Civilian Employee Retirement Eligibility Distribution. (Source: The Career Acquisition Personnel and Position Management Information System [CAPPMIS]. Graphics by USAASC)


FIGURE 2


THE OVERVIEW AAW Civilian Employee Retirement Eligibility Distribution, fiscal years 2013-2021.


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