THE MAINTENANCE FORECAST


CHANCE OF RAIN


Just as weather forecasts allow travelers to prepare for rain, predictive maintenance will allow aircraft maintainers to anticipate needed repairs before component failure. (Photo by Getty Images)


several different categories like safety crit- ical, mission affecting, or reduced mission capabilities.


In addition, commanders, pilots and maintainers will need dedicated training to use the risk information effectively. Commanders need to know how to eval- uate their local risk tolerance and match it to the equipment on hand. Pilots can use the information to familiarize themselves with emergency procedures relating to high-risk component failures. Maintain- ers will need guidance on the cost-benefit analysis of replacing components before


80 Army AL&T Magazine Spring 2022


they fail, how to handle near-but-not- yet-failed parts, and what opportunistic maintenance should be performed in the recovery period. Tis is a vastly different mindset than current maintenance.


Support organizations will have to modernize for PPMx. Spares can be purchased by looking at the probability distributions and calculating the expected number of failures over the fiscal quarter. Predictive maintenance allows logisti- cal ordering to lead the maintenance, thereby reducing logistical downtime and increasing availability. However, depots


will need to develop additional test- ing capabilities because the parts will be removed before failure and the onboard systems will rarely collect data that show what a failure looks like. Depots should run these parts to failure and feed the data back into prognostic systems to improve the quality of the predictions.


CONCLUSION Te changes to the current sustainment system required to implement PPMx are numerous and go beyond adding sensors to the aircraft. Formalizing the decision framework first is of utmost importance


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