BRINGING AFGHAN DEFENSE FORCES UNDER BUDGET
FIGURE 1 Step Step Step Step Step Step
1 2 3 4
Step Step 5 STEP BY STEP
CDD developed this five-step process, and the considerations at each step, for evaluating proposed changes to the Tashkil. After complet- ing the first three steps, roughly 25 proposals requiring 2,700 person nel authorizations re- mained; all could be implemented. (SOURCE: COL Garrett D. Heath, CSTC-A CDD)
20
Validate and Prioritize CPR Requirements
Senior defense official priorities. Capability gaps. Categorization. Rank order.
Identify, Validate and Prioritize Bill-Payers
Senior defense official guidance. Reduced redundancy. Streamlined organiza- tions.
Determine Sustainability and Affordability
Surplus equipment. Class III, V, VII, IX costs. Ability to sustain equipment.
Costs vs. budget.
Align CPR Requirements With Bill-Payers
Source requirements in priority order.
Conduct Feasibility Analysis
‘What if’ scenarios. Options to make require- ments feasible.
A key input to the change process is the annual Afghan-led command plan reviews (CPR), whereby Tashkil changes are recommended to close capability gaps and build a better ANA. Tese changes have to be balanced with sustainability and affordability while ensuring that the ANA remains within an established force cap of 195,000 soldiers.
TWO MAJOR CHALLENGES Te ANA’s 2016 CPR produced more than 80 Tashkil change proposals that required more than 20,000 personnel and equipment authorizations. Two challenges arose. First, only about 8,000 personnel authorizations were available. Second, only limited funds were available for new equipment authorizations and the associ- ated sustainment. Funding levels for the ANA in 2016 decreased more than antici- pated, which made it more challenging to support emerging requirements. For the foreseeable future, the ANA must build the best possible force within a resource- constrained environment.
Given the volume of requested changes and the new fiscal environment, these challenges necessitated adapting the Tashkil change process. Te ANA and CSTC-A developed and implemented a disciplined process to build the 2016 Tashkil while balancing essential capabil- ities with sustainability and affordability.
FIVE-STEP METHODOLOGY CDD developed and implemented a five-step methodology to address the challenges associated with the volume of proposed Tashkil changes and the need to balance requirements with sustain- ability and affordability while remaining within the 195,000 force
cap. Imple-
menting the methodology required close coordination between CSTC-A director- ates and Afghan National Army leaders (See Figure 1). Te steps are:
Step 1: CSTC-A and Afghan Army lead- ers and staff conducted numerous key leader engagements and working groups to validate and prioritize the volume of CPR requirements. Afghan senior defense officials’ priorities, along with capability gaps iden tified during the previous fight- ing season, guided requirement validation. Change proposals that did not support official priorities or the ability to close identified gaps were dropped from further consideration. Te remaining propos- als were then placed into three categories and prioritized according to the degree to which they contributed to achieving tacti- cal, operational and strategic objectives.
For example, the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition close air support resulted in ANDSF capability gaps that were most critical to ANDSF’s success. Afghan Air Force and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
(ISR) capabilities were
identified as gaps that must be closed. So, proposals that increased capabilities for the Afghan Air Force or ISR were placed in the top category and ranked highest in priority. Proposals that ranked near the bottom did not align with senior officials’ priorities or close gaps. Tose were dropped, but most often they could be achieved with internal reorganiza- tion or by streamlining an organization. Tese proposals were most often consid- ered “nice to have.” At the conclusion of this step, 55 proposals requiring 5,800 personnel and 2,900 equipment authori- zations remained.
Step 2: Identification of bill-payers proved to be the most challenging step and the one where we had the least suc- cess. (Bill-payers are trade-offs, i.e., what are you willing to give up to pay for what you want or need?) Senior leader guidance issued in preparation for the Afghan-led CPR required nomination of bill-pay- ers for all new personnel requirements.
Army AL&T Magazine April-June 2016
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